The Perfect Plate – March 2024
Every month, we’ll provide updates on the latest trends in the restaurant industry. We’ll include financial insights, charts, and public market comps.
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A Look To Restaurant Segment Same Store Sales Trends
Looking back at Pre-Covid and Post-Covid Same Store Sales Growth; We see that QSR and Fast Casual have benefited in terms of growing sales through added off-premise sales.
Fine Dining saw a strong recovery since Covid, when customer demand for hospitality and high-higher average check spend was at its highest; data then showed a steeper drop from the Post-Covid recovery in comparison to QSR and Fast Casual.
Casual Dining has seen consistent SSS declines since the Post-Covid bump and is not recovering in the same manner as Fine Dining.
Source: Restaurant Business – SSS Report
Public Market Top 10 for the Week
Luckin Coffee leads the top 10 for the week ending March 29th, 2024
Deal Making: Transaction Activity
M&A in 2024 Q1
M&A in 2023 Q4
- Authentic Restaurant Brands acquired Fiesta Restaurant Group for $220m
M&A in 2023 Q3
- FTC reportedly investigating Roark’s Subway purchase | The FTC is concerned the deal could create a monopoly in the sandwich segment, as Roark Capital also owns Arby’s, Jimmy John’s, and related chains.
- Subway to be acquired by Roark Capital for $9B. Subway has been going through their sales process since late 2022.
- Bain Capital acquired Fogo de Chao for $560 million after it rapidly grew under Rhone Capital.
- Fat Brands buys Smokey Bones for $30m
M&A in 2023 Q1 & Q2
- Darden acquired Ruth’s Hospitality Group for $715m
- Mohari acquired TAO Group Hospitality for $550m
- Main Squeeze Juice Co. [Conscious Capital] acquired I Love Juice Bar’s 20 units
- SSCP Restaurant Investors bought out bankrupt Corner Bakery for $15m
Market Update: Public Comps
Week Ending | 23/03/2024
Top 10 Monthly Price Movements
The last 90-day performance has been strong with an average of +35% for the Top 10.
Source: TIKR, Paperchase
This Top 10 cohort has outperformed the S&P and S&P Consumer index over the last year.
Source: TIKR, S&P, Paperchase
Top 10 Enterprise Value [EV] / NTM Revenue Multiples
The top 10 is made up of mostly Franchisor entities, which have higher multiples than company owned concepts. Consensus revenue growth forecasts estimate ~10% growth into 2024. The growth guidance is attributable to store growth and price increases.
Source: TIKR, Paperchase
Public Comps – Trends
Trend – Enterprise Value [EV] / LTM Revenue Multiples
The restaurant industry has seen valuations decline due to interest rate increases.
Trend – Enterprise Value [EV] / LTM EBITDA Multiples
Revenue Multiple Trends
Restaurant businesses are generally valued on multiples of their revenue or EBITDA, depending on their capital structure, growth potential, and franchise model. For example, a McDonald’s franchise has a higher revenue multiple than a company-owned restaurant chain like Shake Shack.
Here are some of the factors that affect restaurant valuation multiples:
- Capital structure: Businesses with less debt and more equity tend to have higher valuation multiples.
- Growth potential: Businesses with high growth potential tend to have higher valuation multiples.
- Franchise model: Franchise businesses tend to have higher valuation multiples than company-owned businesses.
EBITDA Multiple Trends
Sources
TIKR
Bloomberg
Company 10-Q and 10-K Filings
Restaurant Business
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) [bls.gov]
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) [bea.gov]
U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Economic Research Service [ers.usda.gov]
Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) [fred.stlouisfed.org]
National Restaurant Association [restaurant.org]
International Monetary Fund (IMF) [imf.org]
Disclaimer
The information provided is believed to be from reliable sources, but no liability is accepted for any inaccuracies. This is for information purposes and should not be construed as an investment recommendation. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
This post and the information presented are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future.
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